There is a whole generation of graduates and young professionals whose chances of finding a foot on the ladder have rarely looked more bleak

I haven't really followed Dan Robert's business blog on the Guardian, but I might if this is an example of the treats on offer. I'm not linking to the piece, as it's rubbish, but that doesn't mean I can't tackle the contents.

We have, and will, be seeing much more of this kind of assertion in future, and I think it's time to give it the respect it's due.

There is a whole generation of graduates and young professionals whose chances of finding a foot on the ladder have rarely looked more bleak.

Employment ladder, that is.

Well, you really can't say that at the moment, I'm afraid.

As documented by Paul Redmond (and as the head of careers at Liverpool University he ought to know), many employers, even in the finance industry, are still aiming to recruit for fear that when the recovery comes around they'll have nobody in place to capitalise.

Elizabeth Wilkinson is showing that job ads for her service are down, yes, but not as seriously as they were in that dim and distant memory - er, 2003.

So things are grim, but not unrelievedly so (note that all three companies covered there are graduate recruiters).

So whilst recognising that this year is likely to be substantially tougher for new graduates than the recent past, we also have to be careful not to get hyperbolic as poor Dan has done. Because there's another problem.

It seems that reports like this are genuinely affecting the perceptions of graduates and young people. And so we hear of people who are not bothering to look for jobs because there can't possibly be any available.
At the moment we could be in the baffling position of having a cohort of graduates who don't bother to apply for jobs which are actually there because they believe "experts" who tell them that they are not.

Let's be honest. Things are rough, much rougher than they have been for a few years. But if by 'rarely looked more bleak' you mean 'nearly as bad as they were earlier in the decade, when they were nowhere near as bad as 10 years before that', then yes, your point stands. Otherwise, well, no.

That's before we start to address the point that the sectors most affected employ only a small proportion of graduates every year, but are accorded significance out of proportion. If you add together all graduates from 2006/7 who went to work in all areas of manufacturing, retail, hotel and leisure (because that's having a hard time too) and the finance industry it comes to 19.3% of the total number of graduates from 2008. And it goes up to 30% if you include everyone who is in a business support sector - they're not likely to be so affected but let's include them anyway.

For graduate unemployment rates to hit the levels of the early 90's recession, we need the number of graduates out of work to increase nearly three-fold. Now, if the entire retail industry and finance industry en masse decided not to hire any graduates at all this year, that would do it, but unless that happens, let's just say 'it might be the toughest labour market for graduates for a decade'.

In order for the unemployment rate to get above the levels in 2002/3, about 15,500 graduates from 2008/9 need to be out of work when they graduate. Last year, it was 11,800, so that's a little more likely.